I caught this link in my feeds today: http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/12/google-android-on-inevitabilit.html

A good read on where mobile devices are, and why it is a non-trivial thing to gain market share in the mobile market.  Specifically, the article discusses the hurdles that Google is trying to jump with its investment into Android, and how Apple is setting the bar high with its i* products.

One of the things that jumps out at me is that the technical challenges of mobile development are nearly synonymous with those in web application development.  Mark Sigal points out that development in the mobile realm is essentially heterogenous.  I had a conversation with a team lead at uLocate a few weeks ago that explained the matrix that characterized this heterogeny.  It’s nuts.  It’s a 4 dimensional matrix, where the dimensions are: Device, Carrier, Platform, and OS.

I’m comparing it to the browser wars because when I test KIF (Kaleidocade Indicators Framework ) I look at the application across a 3 dimensional matrix, where the dimensions are: Browser, Version, and OS.

I can see how that similarity may make it easy for a developer to switch between developing a mobile application and developing a web application, since the testing strategy would be very similar.  I would like to see that transition be a smooth one (as a web developer and someone with a recreational interest in developing tools/toys for mobile devices), so that warms my heart.

However, what I see as a dangerous element to that matrix is how it can get so big so fast.  In the browser market, the matrix is limited to only a handful of items in each dimension.  In the mobile market, however, the number of handsets is always growing — so much so that it’s hard for developers to keep up.  Russell Beattie (Nokia employee) puts it this way (full article):

Multiply the number of models [Nokia puts out] per year (10-20) by the number of years Symbian’s been around by the various custom carrier modifications, and you get complete developer and consumer confusion.

From the chatter I’ve seen, it seems like it’s going to be a teething process by Google, then all out mobile platform wars after that.  The end result?  Probably the same as where we are today, in terms of browsers: supporting about 4 major browsers, with minor differences between them. That provides support to about 97% (as of 12/4/2009) of all browsers out there.  Not bad, but it’ll take mobile a while to get there, and I suspect there will be some corporate blood letting before it’s all over.